Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum battle for Michigan

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney poses for photos at a campaign rally in Rockford, Mich. (Gerald Herbert, Associated Press / February 27, 2012) By Paul West, Washington Bureau February 27, 2012, 8:46 p.m. Reporting from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.—  Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battled for primacy in advance of Tuesday contests that could reset the Republican presidential race, extending an epic struggle between the Michigan native's money and establishment ties and his challenger's intense following among tea partysupporters and evangelical Christians. Romney, hoping to reclaim the mantle of clear front-runner, was shooting for primary victories in both Michigan and Arizona, which also votes Tuesday. Romney was well ahead in Arizona but three new Michigan surveys showed a dead-even race among likely primary voters. The magnitude of the Romney vote in Michigan will be closely parsed for clues about the strength of his appeal in an industrial state that Republicans would like to make a battleground in the fall. But conservative challenger Santorum, a long shot when the campaign began, is making a powerful bid to throw the 2012 race into chaos with upsets, particularly in Romney's native state. If he does win, it would be the most severe blow yet to Romney's presumed inevitability as the likely nominee, virtually guaranteeing that the Republican contest will extend well into the spring, and perhaps far longer. Santorum spent the day campaigning across Michigan and conducting radio and TV interviews virtually nonstop. "I think we're going to surprise a few people tomorrow night," he told supporters in the gymnasium of Heritage Christian Academy in Kalamazoo. Romney, who spent the first 19 years of his life in Michigan, where his father was a popular, three-term governor, also offered an upbeat assessment. "We started off, what, about 15 points down in the polls? Now we're leading in the polls," he told a rally in Albion. "Tomorrow could be the first step in restoring the greatness of America." His organizational advantages argue for a victory in Michigan. He won the 2008 primary by nearly 10 percentage points over John McCain. Romney is also expected to start election day with a potentially decisive edge: a sizable lead over Santorum in absentee ballots, which Romney aides say they focused on in the run-up to the primary. In Michigan, "most races are won or lost by absentees," said Michigan Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, a Republican who is neutral in the presidential contest. More than 200,000 Republican ballots had been returned as of Monday afternoon, according to Johnson's office, with projections of primary turnout ranging from less than 1 million to as many as 1.2 million votes. Polls suggest that Romney may have as much as a 25 or 30 percentage point lead over Santorum among absentee voters, who are largely those ages 60 and older, a demographic group that favors Romney. But Santorum has been drawing attention to his conservative social views as he closes with a passionate pitch to his supporters. Republican strategists say they expect those who are still undecided — as many as 1 in 10 voters — to break Santorum's way. However, Santorum is hampered by a lack of meaningful organization that makes winning Michigan an uphill fight. "Rallies are great, but not having phone banks or a ground game is a disadvantage. The fundamentals of the campaign that can really make a difference, Romney has that," said a Republican insider who backs Santorum and requested anonymity to speak candidly. A potential wild card: ballots cast by Democrats, who are allowed to participate in the Republican primary. Democrats have been encouraged by state party leaders to play havoc with the GOP race. Michigan Democrats will caucus later in the year to choose national convention delegates, and any Democratic voter can participate, even those who vote in the Republican primary. Santorum's campaign also called Democrats in search of votes. "We have always said to win this race we have to motivate conservatives and attract Reagan Democrats," Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart said. "That's what we are hoping to do with the calls." But Republican strategists played down the likelihood that it would work, noting that cross-party meddling is often talked about but rarely occurs. Both candidates planned last-minute campaigning in Michigan, though their attention was already shifting to the biggest round of primaries of the 2012 season: the 11 states that will pick delegates next week. Santorum plans a stop Tuesday in Ohio, a major March 6 test because of its importance in the general election. Two rivals, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have already begun campaigning in those states and are not major figures in Tuesday's primaries. The locations of the election-night headquarters of Santorum and Romney reflect political divisions within Republican Michigan — as well as the contest for the state's convention delegates, which will be determined largely on the basis of congressional districts. Santorum will be in Grand Rapids, capital of conservative western Michigan. Romney will wind up in his home county of Oakland, in the state's populous southeast corner. Four years ago, he ran up large margins in the Detroit metro area, and a similar strategy is at work again, designed to offset expected gains by Santorum in more rural parts of the state, where social and religious conservatives are concentrated. In his final full day of campaigning ahead of the primary, Romney tried to shift the debate back toward jobs and the economy in a state that has recovered from the depths of the recession but still suffers unemployment that exceeds the national average. "I've spent 25 years in business," said Romney, who headed a private equity firm. "I understand why jobs go, why they come. I understand what happens to corporate profit; where it goes if the government takes it. This is what I've done throughout my life." Santorum also talked economic issues but got the warmest reception when he turned to social concerns, one day after stirring controversy by saying that John F. Kennedy's speech in 1960 advocating the separation of church and state made him "throw up." "I'm for separation of church and state — the state has no business telling the church what to do," he told a business breakfast in Livonia. "All the reporters in the back will go, 'Oh, there's Santorum talking about social issues.' No, I'm talking about freedom! This is an election about freedom."